El Impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la mortalidad por todas las causas en Paraguay: 2020 – 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53732/rccsalud/2024.e6155Palabras clave:
mortalidad por todas las causas, exceso de mortalidad, Covid-19, ParaguayResumen
Introducción. Pocos estudios han examinado el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la mortalidad por todas las causas en Paraguay. Objetivo. Cuantificar el impacto de la pandemia por coronavirus en la mortalidad por todas las causas en Paraguay entre 2020 y 2022. Materiales y Método. Se utilizó un análisis de series temporales estructurales Bayesiana personalizado con componentes autorregresivos (AR1) y estacionales para predecir recuentos contrafactuales de mortalidad por todas las causas y calcular el exceso de mortalidad. Resultados. Paraguay reportó 122.360 muertes por todas las causas entre 2020-22, en comparación con las 88.988 muertes esperadas si no hubiera ocurrido la pandemia, un exceso de mortalidad relativa del 38%. Es probable que Paraguay subestimó las muertes relacionadas con el COVID-19 en el primer año de la pandemia. Conclusión. Los resultados presentados en este trabajo ampliaron el conocimiento sobre el impacto del COVID-19 en la mortalidad por todas las causas en el contexto de Paraguay, siendo una valiosa herramienta de decisión para los responsables de las políticas públicas. Sin embargo, son necesarias más investigaciones para arrojar luz sobre las diferencias de género y de estructura etaria.
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